The bad Circumstances Trade in general hath been in for some time, which instead of mending seems still growing worse, induced me to consider the Causes, which the sudden and extraordinary Rise of Victuals a few Years ago did, in my Opinion, clearly enough point out and discover. For I observed, that Rise was not intirely owing to the Seasons, which will always influence the Price of Necessaries; but rather, and indeed chiefly, to the Want of Cultivating and Tilling a great deal more Land, to make the Plenty greater: And as the Rise of any Thing implies some Degree of Scarcity, so this suggests that too few of the People are imploy'd in Cultivation of Land, and the Affairs thereof, and consequently too many in all Trades, Manufactures, and Professions; whence these being thus overstock'd with Numbers, must needs be depressed and embarrassed; as they certainly are, in Reference to the great End of the them, which is solely Profit; whilst the other wants the Surplusage of Hands to increase the Plenty, and keep down the Price of Necessaries from rising as they did at that Time.
In Consequence of these general Observations, I have since made many Reflections, which I hope may be useful; and therefore have endeavour'd to write some of them down, that it may clearly appear where the Fault lies, and how it may be remedied; and I trust I have sufficiently done this in the following Essay.
And as I find, Considerations on the Use, Necessity, Increase, and Diminution of Money amongst the People, will best explain this momentous Affair; I shall lay down and illustrate some Principles relating to Money, which I think deserve to be regarded as Maxims.
I. Money (i.e. Gold and Silver) being, by the Consent of all Nations, become Counters for adjusting the Value of all things else, and balancing all Accounts between Man and Man; and the Means by which Commodities of all Kinds are procured and transferred from one to another; is hence become the sole Medium of Trade.
II. Money (by which understand always Gold and Silver) can be brought into a Nation, that hath not Mines, by this Means only: viz. by such Nation's exporting more Goods in Value than they import: For, in proportion, as the Value of the Exports exceeds the Value of the Imports, Money, which must balance the Account, increaseth faster or slower; and, contrariwise, where the Imports-exceed the Value of the Exports, the Cash of such Nation must proportionably diminish. And this is called, and doth constitute, the general Balance of the Trade of all Nations, that have not Mines.
III. Money will be most plentiful, where the Mines are: I mean by this, just the same as if I should say the Quantity of Coals will be greater at Newcastle than at any Place that is supplied only with Coals from thence: And consequently I mean that Gold and Silver will as certainly be less valuable where the Mines are, than at any other Place which is supplied with those Metals by them; as Coals are, and will be less valuable at Newcastle, than at any other Place that is supplied with Coals only from thence. Whence it follows,
IV. That the Prices of the Produce or Manufactures of every Nation will be higher or lower, according as the Quantity of Cash circulating in such Nation is greater or less, in Proportion to the Number of People inhabiting such Nation.
To illustrate this, let it be supposed that we have ten Millions of Cash, and as many People in England; it's evident they have twice as much Money amongst them, in Proportion to their Number, as they wou'd have if their Number were doubled, and the Quantity of Cash remain'd just the same. And therefore, I think, they could give but half the Price for Things in general in this Case, that they could do when they were but half the Number, with the same Quantity of Money circulating and divided amongst them. Wherefore, if the People increase, and the Cash doth not increase in like Proportion, the Prices of Things must fall; for all the People must have Necessaries, to procure which they must all have Money: This will divide the same Quantity of Cash into more Parts, that is, lessen the Parts; and then it's evident they can't pay so much for their Necessaries, as when the same Cash divided into fewer Parts, makes the Parts greater.
The Prices of all Things in this Kingdom, some Centuries ago, were vastly lower than they are now. In the Reign of King Henry the Eighth, it was enacted, that Butchers should sell their Meat by Weight; Beef at an Half-penny, and Mutton at Three-farthings per Pound: And if we look back to the Reign of King Edward the Third, we find Wheat was sold at two Shillings per Quarter, a fat Ox for a Noble, a fat sheep for Six-pence, six Pidgeons for a Penny, a fat Goose for Two-pence, a Pig for a Penny; and other Things in Proportion. See Baker's Chronicle.
Now, since the great Difference of the Prices of these Things now, to what they then sold for, is undoubtedly owing solely to the great Quantity of Gold and Silver, which since that Time hath been brought into this Kingdom by Trade, which hath furnished us with so much more Money, to pay such a vast deal more as we now must, and do give for them; it follows, that the Prices of Things will certainly rise in every Nation, as the Gold and Silver increase amongst the People; and, consequently, that where the Gold and Silver decrease in any Nation, the Prices of all Things must fall proportionably to such Decrease of Money, or the People must be distress'd; unless the Number of People decrease in as great Proportion as the Cash decreaseth in any such Nation.
V. Banking, so far as one is paid with the Money of another, that is, where more Cash Notes are circulated, than all the Cash the Bankers are really possessed of will immediately answer and make good; I say, so long as this Credit is maintain'd, it hath the same Effect, as if there was so much more Cash really circulating and divided amongst the People; and will be attended with these Consequences, that as the Price of Things will hence be rais'd, it must and will make us the Market, to receive the Commodities of every Country whose Prices of Things are cheaper than ours. And though we should lay on Duties, or prohibit such Goods, this will not prevent the Mischief, because we shall not be able to carry our Commodities thus raised to any Nation, where Things are cheaper than ours; and because such Nations will hence be enabled to set up many of our Manufactures, etc. and by their Cheapness so interfere in our Trade at all other foreign Markets, as to turn the Balance of Trade against us, which will diminish the Cash of the Nation. The same Thing must be understood of all publick Securities whatever, that operate as Money amongst us.
VI. The Plenty or Scarcity of any Particular Thing, is the sole Cause when any Commodity or Thing can become higher or lower in Price; or, in other Words, as the Demand is greater or less in Proportion to the Quantity of any Thing, so will such Thing, whatsoever it is, be cheaper or dearer. Nor can any Arts or Laws make this otherwise, any more than Laws or Arts can alter the Nature of Things.
VII. All Things, that are in the World, are the Produce of the Ground originally; and thence must all Things be raised. The more Land therefore shall be improv'd and cultivated, etc. the greater will the Plenty of all things be, and the more People will it also imploy. And as the Produce will hence be increased, so will the Consumption of all Things increase too; and the greater the Plenty becomes this Way, the cheaper will every Thing be.
And thus will Money become plentiful, because less Money will purchase every Thing, in just the same Proportion as the Plenty of every thing shall reduce the Prices, by the Increase of every Thing in Respect of the Demand. And if this Method be sufficiently persued, the Plenty may be increased so much as to make Victuals and Drink half the Price that they are at now; which will make the Price of the Labour of Working People much lower; for the Rates of Labour are always settled and constituted of the Price of Victuals and Drink: And all Manufactures will be vastly cheaper; for the Value of all Manufactures is chiefly constituted of the Price or Charge of the Labour bestowed thereon. This therefore shew how to make Money plentiful, viz.
First, By thus making the Necessaries of Life cheaper, to such a Degree as shall be found effectual to reduce the present Rates of Labour, and thereby the Price of every Thing else, so much, that the Money, now circulating amongst the People, may extend a vast deal further than it now will do.
Secondly, We shall hence be enabled to make, and export our Manufactures at much lower Prices; and this must needs cause us to export abundance more of them to those Nations that now take them of us; besides that it will enable us to carry our Produce, etc. further and cheaper, to induce other Nations to take them of us, who now perhaps do not take any of our Goods; whence the Cash of the Nation will certainly increase, by raising the Value of our Exports above the Value of our Imports; that is, the Balance of Trade will thus be in our Favour, or Money will thus be made plentiful.
VIII. Plenty of Money never fails to make Trade flourish; because, where Money is plentiful, the People in general are thereby enabled, and will not fail to be as much greater Consumers of every Thing, as such Plenty of Money can make them: Therefore Trade is always found to flourish (i.e. increase) as Money grows more plentiful amongst the People. The Year 1720, was a Proof in Fact of this Maxim. And hence the Revenue must needs increase likewise; since the Duties are always levied on the Things which the People consume and use.
IX. Where Trade flourishes (i.e. where the Ballance of Trade is considerably in Favour of any Nation) there the People always increase greatly, and become generally happy; when such Nations ever grow potent and formidable. This hath always been found true in Fact, and is almost self-evident.
X. 'Tis the Strength, Honour, and Interest of every Government, that their Subjects be as numerous, as the Continent, that their Subjects be as numerous, as the Continent they govern will support in an happy Condition; and as the Happiness (i.e. the Riches) and Numbers of the Subjects, are greater or less, so will the Strength, Honour, and Revenue of every Government be greater or less.
XI. A Kingdome or State may have more People in it, than the Land it contains can well support; the People therefore must be wretched, and that Government weak, til so many of the Poor People, as distress each other by their Numbers, are remov'd where they can have Land to support them. The Case is the same exactly in every Nation, where the Land which is cultivated doth not afford enough to make all Things very plentiful; for this alone can make the People happy.
XII. The Quantity of Land, to be further put to Cultivation and Tillage, must be so great, as to increase the Plenty of every Thing to such a Degree, that the Price of every Thing may by that Plenty be so greatly lower'd that the Rates of Labour may also thereby be lower'd, till Money thence come to be plentiful amongst the People in general. 'Till this End be answer'd, nothing material is effected, nor can Trade be enlarged abr or relieved at home: For the Cultivation of Land is the sole natural Encouragement Trade can possibly receive; because all Things must first come out of the Ground, and, according as the Produce of the Earth is more or less plentiful, so will the Consumption of all Things be greater or less; that is, so much more or less Trade will there be amongst the People. On this the Revenue of the Nation doth so much depend, that the whole Amount of it will be greater or less, as this is, or is not duly encouraged; besides that the same Sums will effect more or less accordingly.
XIII. The Cash of any Nation will always decrease, and become scarce, in Proportion as the Rents are raised, above what the Plenty of Money circulating in Trade amongst the People, will well enable them to pay; and where there is not Land enough cultivated to keep down the Rents, and thereby to remedy this Mischief, and support the People, it may go to such an Extream, as to leave very little Money in the Nation. For where Rents are raised, every Thing else must and will rise too: Whence other Nations will be able to supply our Market; and as most of our Commodities will hence become too dear to be taken by them in return, so we shall vent much less of our Goods at other foreign Markets; and so the Balance of Trade will turn against us, and draw off our Money as long as we have any.
XIV. Rents have been advanc'd, from this single Principle, which alone can possibly raise the Price of any Thing; viz. a Demand for Farms, etc. in greater Proportion then they were well to be had. And as this hath in a great Measure hindered the People from going on, as such Demand for Farms shews they naturally would, in cultivating more Land as they increased in Numbers, so that Surplus or Increase of the People have been obliged to imploy themselves in Trades, Manufactures, and Professions, till they have so much overstock'd and embarass'd all these, that their Trades, etc. will not answer to support them, whilst at the same time the Necessaries of Life, and Rents have been greatly advanc'd, to what they were formerly. This therefore must be remedied, or Multitude must be ruin'd: Nor can the Gentlemen escape; for if Money become so scarce, (as it certainly in a great Measure is at present amongst the People,) that the Fruits of the Earth will hardly bring Money enough to support the Farmers, and pay all Charges exclusive of Rent; as many Gentlemen already find, who, on that Account, are obliged to take their Farms into their own Management: The Gentlemen, I say, can fare no better than to become skilful, industrious Farmers themselves, and get their Living by that Means, till Money, as it hath heretofore been, becomes plentiful enough to pay all Charges, with a Surplus to pay Rent; which will be done whenever the Rents are lowered enough to make Money flush, or plentiful amongst the Trading Part of the People, but not sooner.
XV. If all the Gentlemen in the Nation would lower their Rents, at the Request of the People, this could not answer the End; because the Demand for the Fruits of the Earth, which the Land at present cultivated can produce, is, and will continue to be so great, if the People be not diminished, as necessarily to keep the Price higher than the Money circulating amongst them will well enable them to pay for them; and because, until many more of the People are employ'd in Cultivation, etc. to lessen the Number of Poor, and make greater Plenty, all kinds of Trade, Manufactures, and Professions must needs continue so overstocked with Numbers of People imploy'd in them, as absolutely to spoil them all, as to the Profits, which is the sole End of Trade. Therefore the natural Way to lower the Rents, can only be, by putting such very great Tracts of waste Land into Cultivation, as may make Farms abound; which will lower, and make the Rents easy, and will employ the People, not in Cultivation only, but in every Kind of Manufacture, Trade and Calling. For all this will be the necessary Consequence of cultivating such large Tracts of waste Land, as must be cultivated to make Farms abound, and Rents easy.
But I am sensible, this Proposal must meet with almost an insuperable Objection, from all Gentlemen whose Estates consist of Land; since if the Plenty of every thing must be increased so much, that the Produce of the Earth may become a great deal cheaper, the Rents must be lowered a great deal too; I am so apprehensive of the Power of his Prejudice, that I fear it will be very hard to remove it. but I shall endeavour to do it, by shewing that it is no real Loss to Gentlemen this Way to lower their Estates.
What I have said is a strong Argument to the Purpose, that the Scarcity of Money among the People, that the Scarcity of Money among the People will unavoidably disable the Farmers to pay their Rents. To this Cause, which doth naturally lessen the Consumption of all Things, in such Proportion as the Cash grows scarcer, and thereby keeps the Fruits of the Earth from rising to a Price, that might enable the Farmers to pay their Rents, it must be ascribed, that Corn, etc. hath hardly of late fetched Money enough to pay all Charges, exclusive of Rent; and not to the Plenty of Corn considered in itself. For cheap as Corn is, the Number of Poor, as most Parishes find, is greatly encreased of late Years; witness the Numbers we are continually transporting, and the late Invention of erecting Workhouses for the Poor, and Complaints of Tradesmen all over the Kingdom, which have been, and are very great, and very just. Now suppose Corn, etc. were considerably advanced, to enable the Farmers to pay their Rents; what must become of the trading Part of the Nation, who already with justice, complain they can hardly get Money to support themselves, at the present Rates of Things? And how much more would the Poor and their Calamities increase, by such a Rise of Necessaries, together with the still greater Decay of Trade it must occasion; since if the Prices of Things were to be advance, the People in general for want of Money must, if possible, be still less Consumers, and consequently make just so much less Business amongst them, who have already much too little? Besides, it is always found that as Trade lessens (or is divided amongst more Particulars, which is much the same Thing in Effect) the Profits of Trade lessen in still greater Proportion to the Business transacted.
But to proceed: To shew that Gentlemen will lose nothing by falling their Rents, Let it be supposed, that all the Land in the Kingdome were to be raised 20 l. per cent per annum. Since the Land would bear no more Corn, graze no more Cattle, etc. than it now doth; must not the Corn and Cattle, etc. be considerably advanced? and must not the Labourer, whose Necessaries must then cost more, have more for his Labour? and must not Timber to make Carriages, and for every other Use, cost more to fell and hew it, etc. and must not Horses, to draw the Fruits of the Earth, etc. to Market, be more valuable; and consequently Carriage, and every Manufacture cost more too? I think all Things would certainly thus be raised, if Money could be found to circulate them at such an Advance. And then, since Gentlemen are Consumers, and must buy every thing, as well as others, at this Advance, what would they be advantaged by receiving 20 per cent per annum more, and paying that at least, if not more, for what they want?
But if Gentlemen should say, this would be so as to what they spend; yet what they save, and lay up, would be more: For instance, suppose a Gentleman of 1000 l per Annum, now spends 500 l. and lays up 500 l. per annum; if Estates were thus raised, he would at the same Rate spend 660 l. and lay up 600 l. per annum: but how wou'd he be the richer, since the Price of every Thing being raised in like Proportion at least, which is an unavoidable Consequence, his 600 l. would purchase, nor more than 500 l. did before? Wherefore Gentlemen would, in this Case, be not one Jot advantaged. If therefore Rents should fall 30 l. per cent per annum, every thing would certainly fall, in at least the same Proportion; so that Gentlemen would lose nothing, but the name of so much per Annum; which, I think, the Argument above doth sufficiently evince. But lest the name of losing so much per annum should be a Prejudice, strong enough to prevent the Execution of this so necessary Proposal; let it be further consider'd, that empty Houses, the Number of which at present is very great, and will be greater still, if this Method be not taken to fill them; I say, empty Houses, if they can be filled, are real Estates, as well as Land. Now if Money be thus made plentiful, as it certainly may, Plenty of Money will soon make Trade flourish, and a flourishing Trade will soon enable the People to occupy more Houses, and hereby the Number of People likewise will soon be increased;(1*) so that landlords taken in their full Extent, including Landlords of Houses as well as of Land, will thus certainly be Gainers, by falling their Estates so much as shall be needful to make Money plentiful; which will soon fill their Houses. But it may be said, if Lands must fall 30 per cent which is near a third, to fill the Houses; and but an eighth, or a ninth of the Number of Houses, as I shall shew, remain to be filled; how are Landlords, taken in the full sense of the Word, including Landlords of Houses as well as of Land, Gainers? I answer, that the Rents are now raised above their proper Value; for the proper Value of any thing, is really no other, than what the Money circulating among the People will well enable them to pay; nor can any greater Value be long supported by any Means whatsoever.
But it will be asked, How we shall know when the Prices of Things are at this proper Value? I answer, that as the Price of Labour is always constituted of the Price of Necessaries, and the Price of all other things chiefly of the price of Labour; whenever the Price of Necessaries is such, that the labouring Man's Wages will not, suitably to his low Rank and Station, as a labouring Man, support such a Family, as is often the Lot of many of them to have, the Price of Necessaries being then evidently so much too high, every thing else is so too; or then may the Prices of Things justly be said to be above this proper Value; which will more clearly appear in the Course of this Essay.
But I will proceed to shew, that the Gentlemen will be the richer for falling all the Lands in the Kingdom 20 or 30 per cent per annum, provided this Fall be effected only by the Addition, and Cultivation of so much more Land, as will make Farms so plentiful, as to reduce the Rents of Lands so much.
For if it shall appear, that the Gentlemen would be the poorer, if all the Lands in the Kingdom were raised 20 per cent per annum; I think the Reverse must follow, that they would be the richer if all the Lands were fallen 20 or 30 per cent per annum; that is 70 or 80 l. would certainly buy more, if all the Lands were so fallen, then 120 l. would do, if all the Lands were so raised; which I shall endeavour to prove.
If all the Lands were raised 20 per cent per annum it's certain they would not produce more, but perhaps less, than they now do, by putting it, in some Degree, out of the Farmers Power to use so much Skill and Charge to cultivate them, as they could do before their Rents were so raised: I say, since the Land could however produce no more than it now doth, all the Produce, whatever it consists of, must be sold not only for all the 20 pounds more, but there must be Profits likewise on all those 20 Pounds, to enable the Farmers to buy whatever they want at higher prices, which every thing must needs be advanced to from thus raising the Produce, which, as it passeth through every Hand and Manufacturing, must still have proportionably increased Profits on the thus raised prime Cost, before it comes to the Consumer; who, therefore, must thus certainly, in the End, not only pay all the advanced 20 pounds Rent, but likewise the necessary Profits thereon through all the several Hands it must pass: And since the Labour, which adds the greatest Value to every thing, must in this Case be inhanced likewise, it's evident, the same Quantity of Produce must be dearer by all the first advanced 20 Pounds Rent, and by suitable Profits to all the several Hands through which it must pass, together with a greater Charge of Labour thereon; whence, if the same Quantity of Produce must thus cost a great deal more, than all the 20 pounds Rent, by which it was first inhanced, the Parts must cost more too in such Proportion; so that, I think, I need not scruple to assert, that 140 l. could not in this Case purchase what 100 l. now doth; whence Gentlemen, who are consumers in common with others, would thus evidently be much the poorer for so raising their Estates; and therefore I think it an undeniable Consequence, that they wou'd be the richer for lowering their Estates 20 or 30 l. per cent per annum since it must be equally certain, that 70 or 80 l. would purchase more in this case, than 100 l. now doth; as it is certain 120 l. in the other case, would not purchase so much as 100 l. now doth.
And this both accounts for, and verifies an Observation, I have heard some Gentlemen make, and wonder at, that they find they can't live so well and hospitably on the same Estates, as their Ancestors did, who had vastly less Income from them, than their Successors, who make this Observation, now have. If therefore, Gentlemen, find themselves streighten'd, by raising Rents above what the Money circulating amongst the People will well enable them to pay; how great must the Streights and difficulties be which are brought on the People, out of whom such heavy Rents are raised!
But perhaps it may be objected, that this Argument concludes too much: Since, if 70 l. will in this Case purchase more than 120 l. why will not nothing purchase more than something? To which I answer, There is a proper Point, at which it will stop of itself; which is this: Whenever the Wages of the Labouring Man, and Price of Necessaries are mad so near equal, that he can, suitably to that low Rank in Life, support such a Family as he, in common with all the human Kind, chiefly came into this World to raise, (which Things I hope to shew may be brought much nearer together than they now are); I say, when the Labouring Man's Wages will do this, the Rent the Lands will then bear, is that proper and fit Rent, which will enable the Gentlemen to purchase more of every Thing, than any larger Rents can enable them to do; which I prove thus:
Suppose the Rents rais'd so much, as necessarily to carry the Price of Goods to the Consumers in general, to higher Rates than the Money they can get will enable them to purchase what they really want: this makes a Kind of unnatural Plenty of Goods, presenting themselves for buyers, who, though they really want them, can't find Money to purchase them,and therefore are forced to abridge their necessary Wants as much as they can; and this depresses the Value of those Goods (which thus in the End must want buyers) below the Rates which the Rents have made necessary; and this will necessarily keep the Produce of the Ground which the Farmers bring to Market, so low, that they can't make it answer to bear all Charges, and pay their Rents; whence the Gentlemen must find it difficult, if not impossible, to get their Rents; whilst at the same Time, whatever they buy, as hath been prov'd, will necessarily be dearer in a greater Proportion than ever the Rents in a greater Proportion than ever the Rents can be raised; whence, I think, it must be plain, that such Rents of Lands in general, as will nearest comport with the Point above-mention'd, will always purchase most of every Thing.
But there is yet another strong Argument to induce Gentlemen to make Money plentiful; viz. a due Regard to the Happiness of their own Families. For let it be consider'd, that Men come into this World to raise a new Generation, and depart out of it. Now the Term of Life, Men will be found to have one with another, from the Time of Marriage to their Death, is very little more than 20 years; in which Time, one Marriage with another, I suppose, produces about 4 Children who live to Man's Estate: Now suppose a Gentleman of 1000 l. per Annum, to make Provision for his Children, lays up 500 l. per Annum, which in 20 years will be 1000 l. sav'd for them, which divided into 4 parts, including the Widow's Share, which must often happen, can be but 2500 l. for each Child's share: And since this is not only much inferior to the Estate it was sav'd out of, but hardly sufficient, viz. the Interest thereof, to maintain a single Person handsomely, most of the Children must be introduced to Trade, to improve their Money for their Families, or they will soon reduce it to nothing. Now if Trade be languishing and distress'd, it can't be expected but many such will sink in the general Difficulties Trade lies under. Therefore, if there be any Way practicable to make Money plentiful amongst the People in general, which never fails to make Trade flourish, it ought to be done, not only from a common Principle of Affection to the publick Good, but for the particular Benefit of every Gentleman's own immediate Offspring, many of whom are sure to be affected, just as Trade is in a flourishing or distress'd Condition.
But the languishing condition of Trade is ascribed to the Luxury of the People; concerning which let it be consider'd.
That it is expected of every Man, that he provide for himself and Family a Support; but this Expectation is unreasonable, if Things are not so wisely constituted in their own Nature, that every one may attain this End.
The Ways Men have to attain this Support, are the Exercise of their several Occupations.
These arise solely out of the mutual wants, etc. of Mankind. Children who can do little or nothing towards supplying themselves, make about half the Business of the World; since more than half the human Race die under 17 Years of Age.
Now if the People must retrench, they must do some or all of these Things; viz. wear fewer and worse Cloaths, etc. eat less and worse Victuals; imploy fewer or no Servants; occupy less House-room, and use less Light and Fewel, and spend little or no Money in any Pleasure or Diversion; and instead of Wine or Strong Beer, drink small Beer or Water; and avoid Marriage, as many certainly do, because it creates a greater Expence than they can support. Now wou'd not this lessen the Consumption of every Thing, and hinder many from supporting themselves and Families, by making so much less Business amongst the People, and thereby greatly increase the Number of Poor; who, if no other Way be found to imploy them, which tillage alone in this Case can do, must become a much greater Burthen than they are? Besides that where the Poor increase, the Profits of Trade will be still more and more reduced, through Losses, and Want of Trade, and the Efforts of such great Numbers of indigent People, as must be striving to support themselves in that business that remains. And must not the Revenue be greatly diminish'd likewise, since in this Case the Consumption of Things, on which the Revenue intirely depends, must be lessen'd very much? Besides, 'tis certain a poor People can't pay great Taxes, any more than they can pay great Rents.
Therefore, instead of urging the People to be less Consumers, Things should be made so plentiful, that they might be greater Consumers, that Business might increase, and not abate amongst the People. And then Luxury would find its natural and proper bounds, which if any Man transgressed in any extraordinary Measure he would be sufficiently whipt with his own Rod.
But farther; as to Luxury, those that are not influenced by the natural Motives to Frugality, will not easily be restrained by any other whatsoever.
The natural Motives to Frugality are these; present Provision for Families, and Fortunes for Children.
They who neglect the first, must soon suffer Want; and they who would provide for the latter, must consider what the Term of Life is which they may reasonably hope for, and take care that their Gains and Expences are proportioned to the End designed.
Now as Persons must, generally at least, have handsome Fortunes themselves, who shall provide Fortunes for their Children, let it be supposed, that a Man sets out with 2000 l. and by skilful and prudent Management he gains, one Year with another, about 500 l. If Men who have such Fortunes must not live a little decently, I can't see whence Trade, which intirely depends on, and terminates wholly in the Consumption of things, can arise; nor how Landlords can expect any considerable Rents for their Houses, etc. and I am certain that to pay Rent, and Taxes, and all other Charges, and maintain a middling Family in London, 250 l. per annum, is but a scanty Pattern, even where all Things are managed with the utmost Frugality. Nay 50 or 60 l. more per annum, as the Rents and the Rates of Things now go, shall hereafter be shewn to be but a very moderate Expence.
But suppose, in this Case, such a Man should lay up, one Year with another, 200 l. and that for 20 years, which is I believe much about the Term Men have to raise and provide for Families, he then would add 4000 l. to his first 2000 l. which makes 6000 l. together, to be divided amongst four Children, which I take to be the Number of one Marriage with another raises; this Sum therefore will be but 1200 l. for each Child's Share, if a like Sum be reserved for the Widow; and if there should be now Widow, but 1500 l. for each Child, which will not often set them in better Circumstances than their Parents set out it: But if Things must be worse than this, Families must soon sink into Poverty. And since these Things are subject to many and great Contingencies, nobody ought to think 25 l. per cent per annum even on such a Capital imployed in Trade, too great a Gain; especially considering what Skill and Pains are necessary to reach this End, and to what great Risk Money imployed in Trade is always exposed, beside the present and future Provision with which Families are to be supplied out of it.
Nothing ought to be deemed Luxury in a Tradesman, whilst he lives at about half the income of his Business; yet in Prudence he ought not to make too great a figure, because of the uncertain and fluctuating Nature of Trade, which may happen some time or other, by Misfortune, if not otherwise, to turn against him; and because the more he can lay up for his Children, the more will he have done towards raising them to better Stations in Life.
Nor ought it to be deemed Luxury in a Tradesman if he spends the whole Income of his business, if such Expence is unavoidable, when the utmost Frugality and good Management are exercised in such a Man's Family.
Peace and Plenty comprehend all the Felicity Mankind were designed to enjoy in this mortal State; and are so well known to constitute the Happiness of the World, that they are proverbial Terms to express the compleatest general Felicity; which undoubtedly suggests, that they have by Experience been found to answer the End.
Wherefore, if there be any Difficulty amongst the People, it must be owing to the Defect of one or both of these.
As we are now in Peace, it must be owing to the Deficiency of Plenty, that the Trade of this Nation is in such a languishing Condition; the Truth of which the numerous Complaints to the Parliament, and great Number of empty Houses abundantly evince.
Where Tillage and Cultivation of Land are not annually to a considerable Degree increased, Peace, and the natural Increase of Mankind do necessarily produce a general Decay of Trade.
For Peace, which puts an End to the vast Business which War necessarily creates, obliges those that were employed, and found their Livelihood by the Affairs of War, to employ themselves in the Business which the common Affairs of Life produce; and as hereby there is a much greater Number of People to be subsisted, on so much less Business as the ending a War puts a Period to, it's plain this must divide the remaining Business into a great many more Parts; whence the Profits, which ought to be so much augmented as the Business to each Particular becomes less (because the Expence of Living will not be less) are always found by Experience to lessen, in a greater Proportion than the Business to each Particular lessens. And this is the necessary Consequence of having a greater Number of People in any Trade, where the Business transacted by them all is no greater than when the same Trade and Business were in so much fewer Hands; and hence Ruin must happen to may whose Trades are thus unhappily circumstanced.
Besides, Peace lowering the Interest of Money brings many more People into Trade, who either cannot live on the reduced Interest of their Money, or are not satisfied to do so, and therefore enter on Trade on Trade to improve their Money to better Advantage. And such having abundance of Money to employ, must needs take a great deal of Business from those that had it before, by doing Business at much less Profit than it was before done, that they may employ the large Sums they bring into Trade; this must needs make it very difficult for People of much less Fortunes to get a Living, and of Consequence greatly increase the Number of Poor, and must needs empty the Houses too, by disabling the People to pay such Rents as they did before; and will drive many out of the Nation to get their Livings by the Arts they have learned here.
The heavy Debts and Taxes which the late War hath laid this Nation under, notwithstanding we had the greatest and most uninterrupted Success that could be wished, and have since had so long a Peace, may shew that War is not the natural Means to make Trade flourish, since the Consequences are still so burthensome to us. And if we look back to the Condition France was reduced to by the same War, which introduced both Famine and Pestilence amongst them, and occasioned the People to surround the Dauphin's Coach in Crouds, and cry out, Peace and Bread! surely these Things may fully convince us that War is a very great Calamity.
Peace, therefore, being the only natural Foundation of Happiness to any Nation, and Trade the particular Means whereby the People can be employed and subsisted, the promoting and improving Trade should be always consulted, and especially in Times of Peace, which is favourable to such a Design.
In general, there should never be any Restraints of any kind on Trade, nor any greater Taxes than are unavoidable; for if any Trade be restrained in any Degree, by Taxes or otherwise, many People, who subsisted by the Business which now hath Restraints laid upon it, will be rendered incapable of pursuing it, and of Consequence they must be employed some other Way, or drove out of the Kingdom, or maintained at the publick Charge; which last is always a great and unreasonable Burthen, and should, if there be any possible Way which might employ them, be prevented.
Now that there are natural Means to subsist all Mankind in a happy Condition, will appear clear from the Wisdom and Goodness of God, who hath taken such ample Care of all the Creatures below us, that they want no good thing, nor suffer any Hardship but what unreasonable Men bring upon them. Wherefore if God hath so wisely and graciously provided for all the Creatures below us, for whose Happiness other Beings evidently appear to be designed, it must be absurd to imagine he hath disposed things so, that Unhappiness in any Degree should unavoidably arise to Man, who he hath placed at the Head of all his Works in this World. Therefore whatever Difficulties Mankind meet, must be owing to their own Mismanagement, in not looking through the Nature of Providence with respect to themselves.
One Branch of that Providence, which Men should attend to and consider, is, that Mankind as certainly increase as Vegetables, and Animals; and therefor that Increase must continually be employed in cultivating proportionably more Land. For, otherwise being all consumers, there must continually be greater Numbers subsisted on the Produce of the same Land which was before cultivated, and this will increase the Demand for the Produce, and inhance the Price of it, whilst the increasing People must employ themselves solely, in Trades, Manufactures, etc. to enable them to subsist: Whence it must needs come to pass, that Trades, Manufactures, etc. will soon be so over-stocked, that all the Increase of the People can't be subsisted this Way; seeing the Necessaries of Life, for which they all ultimately work, will all the while be growing dearer, and the People less able to purchase them. And as I take this to be very much our present Case, as may appear by an Estimate I have subjoin'd of the necessary Expence for the Support of a poor Family, and another for a Family in a middling Station, so this Proposal of cultivating proportionably more land, appears to me to be the only natural Remedy that can be applied; the happy Effects of which, if sufficiently executed, will soon discover any imaginary Appearances to the contrary.
But I think it needful here to observe at what Rate Mankind increase, because their Happiness certainly depends on cultivating still more and more Land in such Proportion. And I choose to take Sir William Pettis's Account of this, who proves Mankind will absolutely double themselves in 360 Years,(2*) notwithstanding Wars and Plagues: Therefore, the Quantity of Land, which every Year should be taken in and cultivated, must be at least a 360th Part of the Quantity at present in Cultivation.
Now if England be 320 Miles long, and 290 Miles wide, it must, supposing its Length and Breadth to be every where alike, contain 92800 square Miles: But as England is not so regular a Figure, I suppose it will be needful to deduct a Third of its Content for its Irregularity, Towns and Rivers; and then there will be about 62000 square Miles contain'd in it.
Now suppose that at present, but about half, that is, 31000 square Miles are cultivated, a 360th Part of that, viz. 86 square Miles at least, should every Year be further added, and taken into Cultivation, to hold Proportion to the natural Increase of Mankind: And if a greater Part of England be already improv'd than I have supposed, or if Mankind increase much faster than Sir William Pettis above asserts, then the Addition every Year must be greater too in such Proportion.
But as nothing like this hath hitherto been done, it's evident to Demonstration, That hence all Trades, Occupations, Manufactures and Profession, are overstock'd with Numbers, and embarrassed. and hence Rents have been advanced by the Demand the Increase of People hath occasion'd for Land; and hence Living is become much more chargeable than formerly, and the People less able to support themselves; besides, the inhancing the Price of Necessaries hath either advanced our Commodities, or made them so much worse, that our Neighbour Nations have not taken so many of them as they would otherwise have done, and we probably must have taken more Commodities of them for this Reason. And thus, I doubt not, the Ballance of Trade is against us, that is, the Gold and Silver this Nation have by this Means been really diminished; and the prodigious Exportation of Gold and Silver of late Years is a strong Indication of it, whatever Pretences may be advanced concerning it to the contrary. Beside that the Exchange, especially for Holland, hath of late Years been considerably below the Value of our Coin, as the Exchange with every Nation will always be, whenever they have the Ballance upon us.(3*) And though this may be some small Encouragement to the Exportation of our Commodities, because they come so much cheaper to the Markets abryet if our Trade goes on so, we shall certainly have very little Cash left. But if, to prevent this dreadful Evil, we do as fast as possible put a very great Quantity of Land into Use, more than at present is cultivated, our Poor will be employ'd, the empty Houses soon filled, and our Manufactures become much cheaper and better; and this will both increase our Exportations to the Nations we now trade with, and give Rise to other foreign Markets to vend our Goods at, and prevent the excessive Importation of foreign Goods amongst ourselves; and thus the Ballance of Trade will become in our Favour, and increase the Cash of the Nation, or Money will certainly by this Method become plentiful enough amongst the People in general. But there is no other Way in Nature to compass this End, or recover the Trade of the Nation: For those Nations that can work cheapest, must have the Money, as sure as they always will have the Trade; to which I add, that the People will always flow into those Nations that get the Money (i.e. have the Ballance of Trade in their Favour) because Trade, which is the Means of getting the Money, is that which employs and subsists them.
But before I dismiss this Point, I can't help taking Notice of an Article inserted in the Daily Courant of January 3, 1731 from Berlin, where, it seems, an exact Register is kept of the Births, Deaths, and Marriages; by which it appears, 3331 Persons were born, and 2691 died; so that the Increase is 641 Persons that Year in that City. Now I have tried the Par of human Life from our Bills of Mortality, which doth not amount to 25 Years, one with another: But, however, multiply the Deaths by 25, the Product will be 67275 Persons in that City, which divided by 641, the Increase gives 104, the Number of Years in which Mankind will double. And if we take this for the Rule, there must be near 300 square Miles of land more taken in and cultivated, every Year in England, or the Increase must fall into the several Professions, Trades, and Manufactures, and over-do, and absolutely spoil them all; which is the necessary and unavoidable Consequence of the Increase of Mankind, if Land, in proportion to the Increase be not every Year added and improved, to employ and support them.
Another Thing, which undoubtedly is of the utmost Importance to the Trade of this Kingdom, is the making Timber so plentiful, that we may build our Ships so much cheaper, that no Nation may be able to sail for less Freights than the English. If this be sufficiently done, together with making Labour considerably cheaper, Ships may soon be buildt here than now can be; and this will employ abundance of People of many Trades, besides the still greater Numbers who will be imployed in navigating them. And as the Riches of this Kingdom do undoubtedly very much depend on maritime Affairs, so the Strength of it is chiefly its Navy: Wherefore if Timber be made very plentiful, and Labour cheaper too, which would make a mighty Difference in the Expence the Government are now at for the Navy, beside that they will be mann'd, and fitted to Sea at so much less Expence likewise. This will infallibly be the Consequence of sufficiently executing this Proposal in all its Parts. Thus will much less Money serve all the Affairs of the Government, and soon make a Surplus arise, to reduce the national Debts, and ease the Taxes, without any Inconvenience to the Government or the Nation.
It might be expected that Gentlemen, for their own Advantage, and the Benefit of their Families, should plant Timber enough; but we find it so much otherwise, that Laws have been made to oblige this to be done, and yet the End hath not been attained; which I ascribe to these Causes: First, the Rents having been rising of late Years, from the considerable Demand there hath been for Land, hath been one Reason that planting Timber hath not been sufficiently regarded. Secondly, Planting Timber regards Posterity rather than ourselves immediately, and this hath occasioned the Neglect of it; and if we continue to go on thus, an Observation the Spectator No 583 recites, that the Nation if a few Years will be at a Loss to supply itself with Timber sufficient for the Fleets of England, will certainly be verified.(4*) Wherefore, to make Plenty of Timber, I would propose, that a Law be made, which shall effectually provide, and oblige all the Lands throughout the whole Kingdom, at all times, to maintain a Timber Tree in every Hedge and Bank, at 100 Feet Distance or thereabouts, which Distance I suppose sufficient to admit the Sun and Wind, so that the Fruits of the Earth may receive no Prejudice by the Trees that should thus grow in the Hedges and Banks.
Further, all Lands that are infertile, or not so fit for Cultivation; and likewise all waste Land, as far as it's possible to effect if, should be well planted with Timber. For it's well known that all Lands, where Woods have been cut and grubb'd up, are always fruitful; for a Wood, by the Fall of the Leaves, etc. and retaining the Rain much longer on the Ground than otherwise it would, always renders the Ground it grows on more fruitful; besides that Woods always produce the finest and best Timber, Whilst the Hedges produce the strongest and crookedest; which therefore would be exceedingly useful for shipping, and especially for small Vessels. Thus Timber may be made plentiful enough, and then, if Labour be made cheaper, Ships may be built so cheap, as to enable us to cope with any Nation in the World in all maritime Affairs. But there is no other Way in Nature to do this; and till 'tis done, we must be content, not only to see the Ships of other Nations the principal Carriers of the World, but to employ many Ships ourselves which are not built in this Kingdom.
But it will be objected, This can't be effected presently, because Timber takes many Years to grow to any Perfection. So much the more Need is there that it be done; and if effectual Provision be made for Futurity, the present Stock of Timber in the Kingdom will answer the End sufficiently, whilst the Supply is growing to prevent any future Inconvenience, provided Labour be, as speedily as possible, made cheap enough to contribute to that End: For the same Means which alone can make Labour cheaper, will make every other Thing cheaper. And this may be fully effected in a very few Years, and will be sensibly felt by all, from its very first Attempt, if Land enough be, as fast as may be, put into Cultivation to answer the Purpose. For with this, every Trade will infallibly flourish, without any Inconvenience but falling the Rents, which I have before shewn will be really the present Interest of every Gentleman, besides the sure Foundation of the Happiness of his immediate Offspring.
And as to the Purchase of Estates,which is always governed by the Interest of Money, they will be valued at as many Years Purchase as they would if Rents had not fallen; and tho' the Sums they sell for must be less, in proportion as the Rents shall be lowered, yet the Money will have, at least, all the same Effects, apply it how you please.
The Spectator No 200, asserts, That if the Fruits of the Earth could be increased one Tenth above all Possibility of Consumption, it would reduce the Price of them half. But such an Increase is absolutely impossible, the World having never yet, I believe, produced an Instance of it. Besides that the Author of the World hath, undoubtedly, observed as nice and exact a Proportion in the Wants of Mankind, and what the Earth will produce to supply them, as he hath done in all the rest of his Works; and then such an Excess, as I said before, is impossible; and this I shall prove hereafter.
But a greater Excess than this is become a Fact, as to the Houses within the Bills of Mortality,(5*) and will certainly be attended with that Consequence, of reducing the Rents one half, if the Method I propose be not applied to prevent it. And if, as he reasons in another Part of the same Spectator, the Cities of London and Westminister pay a Fifth of the whole Revenue of the Crown, beside the Rent and Taxes they enable the Country to pay; what Care ought to be taken to make Money plentiful amongst the People in general, which alone can make Trade flourish, and fill the Houses, and prevent so great and certain a Diminution as the Revenue must suffer in all Parts of the Kingdom for want of this Care!
But I am sensible the great Number of empty Houses is ascribed to the Increase of Building since the Peace. But whoever considers, that there are not less then 6 or 700000 People in the Bills of Mortality; and that, according to the natural Increase of Mankind, at the lowest Computation of doubling in 360 Years, the Increase will be near 40000 People since that Time,(6*) he will be necessarily obliged to ascribe the empty Houses to other Causes, and not to the Increase of Building solely. But however since they are built, and their being inhabited, or standing empty, will certainly have such an Influence on the Rents of the Kingdom, and the Revenue likewise, it behoves us to take the proper Methods to fill them, which I am confident will soon be effected by cultivating Land enough to make a Plenty of Money amongst the Trading Part of the People in general, but not otherwise.
But further, if the People increased, as Dr Nichols says they did, so as to double themselves in London in 40 Years, notwithstanding the last great Plague which happened within the Period he wrote of; and the Country increased, tho' not in the like yet in a considerable Proportion (and I hope his Authority is sufficient to bear me out); then the Building since the Peace, which hath by no means I think been in proportion to one Fourth of such and Increase of People, can't be the Reason to which the Vast Number of empty Houses can be ascribed.
But the empty Houses must be ascribed to such a Diminution of Trade, and consequently of Cash amongst the People, which makes it so difficult for the People to get Money to support them, that many are become incapable to pay the Rents, and many must have forsaken us on this Account. For the People will diminish, where the Means of getting a Livelihood is not well to be attained, suitable to their several Ranks and Stations; which is a necessary Consequent, where the Balance of Trade becomes considerably against any Nation (unless the Means I contend for be taken to prevent it).
For it's evident, such a Nation hath amongst them just so much Business less than their own several Wants create, as the Amount of the Ballance against them is, which lessening their Cash at the same time just so much too, brings a double Inconvenience with it, viz. Want of Money and Employment: And if Things are suffered to go on so, the People must disperse and diminish. And therefore this Maxim, well known amongst Merchants, appears will founded, it being only the Reverse of what is shewn above, That the People always increase in whose Favour the Balance of Trade is considerable; as it must needs have been in ours, in that Period of Time Dr Nichols wrote of; since, notwithstanding so great an Increase of the People, the Prices of every thing, as is well know, rather advanced all the Time, which they could not have done if the Cash of the Nation had not increased in yet greater Proportion than the People increased; as I think the Illustration of my fourth Maxim evinces.
Hence therefore it appears, that every Nation ought to keep Trade on such a Foot, as always, on the whole, to have the Balance in their Favour: For if Mankind double themselves only in 360 Years, if the Cash of the Nation be not augmented every Year a 360th Part, the People must in a few Years be distressed for want of Money, unless all things be made at least so much cheaper to prevent it. And as the Means of doing this is in the Power of every Nation, that have waste Land enough to improve to increase their Plenty,(7*) and thereby reduce the Price of Things; so the improving so much waste Land as answers this End, will furnish Employment, and consequently a livelihood for the People; and will always, not only prevent any considerable Number of Houses from standing long empty, but will continually cause more to be added all over the Kingdom; as the vast Increase Dr Nichols asserts there was, particularly in London, within forty Years, besides the great Increase in the Country in the same Time, doth fully shew.
But that I may put this past all doubt, let it only at present be granted, which I will shew hereafter, that the People in London and Westminister were really doubled in about 40 Years; since this, nor any thing like this, could be the Effect of the natural Increase of Mankind,(8*) it must have some other most powerful Cause: This Cause I assert was a flourishing Trade; which I thus prove, viz.
The People were doubled in this Town, and increased too in the Country, though not in the like, yet in a considerable Proportion; and yet the Prices of Necessaries, and all other Things in general, were higher than those Things were 40 Years before: Now this, by my fourth Maxim, was absolutely impossible, if the Cash of the Nation had not been vastly increased also. Wherefore, as we have no Mines, the Cash could be increased only by exporting so many more Goods in value than we imported. And as this is, in itself, that which constitutes a flourishing Trade in any Nation, so we see the Effect was the doubling the People in London as aforesaid; wherefore let our Trade be again put on such a Foot, that we may be able to raise our Produce, and Commodities of every Kind, as cheap as any Nation can raise, or make any thing whereby they may any way interfere in any Branch of our Trade, and the same Effect will again arise, and consequently not only fill the empty Houses, but cause more to be added, as I said above.
And as it hence appears absolutely needful to keep Trade on a Foot, whereby the Balance may always, on the whole, be in our Favour; so it's certain, the Mines which are continually giving Gold and Silver, do give sufficient to supply such a needful Balance to every Nation. For the Gold and Silver, which the Mines, since the Europeans have possess'd them, have furnished Europe in general with, have not only furnished Quantities equal to the Increase of Mankind since that Time, but so much more Gold and Silver, as to inhance the Price of all Kinds of Commodities in Europe in general, but especially in those Nations who have, either directly or indirectly, had the most considerable Trade with the Countries where the Mines are; and this in all Probability they will always continue to do; but if not, I have and shall shew how to do that which will be always equivalent.
And as to the Countries, which are thus continually furnishing this Ballance to the rest of the World, they having the Mines, have that which is equivalent to such a Balance in their Favour.
I shall now proceed to some Observation concerning Prohibitions on Trade, and also concerning prohibiting the current Coin to be exported.
It was before observed, that it is reasonably expected, every Man should, some way or other, maintain himself and Family honestly; and that, to this End, the Affairs of the World must be so wisely constituted in their own Nature, as to furnish sufficient Employment for every Body; since any considerable Defect in this Respect must leave some unimploy'd and consequently without Maintenance: And further, that there is no Employment in the World, but what the People mutually cause each other.
These Employments arise solely out of the several Wants, etc. of Mankind, which constitute all the various Trades, Professions, and Occupations of Men; to which I will add, and hereafter prove, that these are so wisely proportioned, as fully to employ all that need or will be employed; and therefore these are the natural Foundations of all commerce amongst Mankind and sufficient to subsist them all, if not obstructed by any Means.
All Nations of the World, therefore, should be regarded as one Body of Tradesmen, exercising their various Occupations for the mutual Benefit and Advantage of each other.
A very considerable Part of these Employments relate to maritime Affairs and Commerce, by transporting the Commodities of the several Nations from one Nation to another.
This makes ships needful, which, considering all things that any way relate to them, furnish Employment for a prodigious Part of Mankind; besides the inland Carriage of the Goods which the ships are ld with, and the Merchants, and Writers, and all the Trades that depend on them; which must needs enable every Nation to support a prodigious Number of Inhabitants, more than the same Territory could support, if there were not this Commerce between the several Nations to employ the People.
Now since Mankind never complained of having too much Trade, but many do really want Business sufficient to get a Livelihood, Prohibitions do, in the very Nature of them, cut off so much Employment from the People, as there would be more, if there were no such Prohibitions. And though this will, I think, chiefly affect the Nations who prohibit the Exportation of their own Commodities, because other Nations will either raise those Things themselves, or substitute something else of their own, if they can't get the same Things from other Nations, which I believe one way or other they almost always may; yet hence 'tis evident, such Prohibitions lessen the Number of Merchants and Ships, with all their Appendages, so far as such Prohibitions can affect them; which undoubtedly must cut off a Livelihood from abundance of People, who therefore must be obliged to seek their Livelihood in domestick Affairs; which being not sufficient to subsist so many People, upon the same Territory, without proportionable maritime Trade, must bring great Inconvenience on such a Nation, for want of so much of this Branch of Employment for the People.
And as other Nations, for want of looking thoroughly into the foundation of the Trade of the World, will certainly make Reprisals by Prohibitions,(9*) as we know they actually do, the Calamity of every Nation, that is no wiser, will increase; since they cut off so much Trade and Employment from Mankind, as these mutual Prohibitions can affect.
But no Inconvenience can arise by an unrestrained Trade, but very great Advantage; since if the Cash of the Nation be decreased by it, which Prohibitions are designed to prevent, those Nations that get the Cash will certainly find every thing advance in Price, as the Cash increases amongst them. And if we, who part with the Money, make our Plenty great enough to make Labour sufficiently cheap, which is always constituted of the Price of Victuals and Drink, our Manufactures, and everything else, will soon become so moderate as to turn the Balance of Trade in our Favour, and thereby fetch the Money back again. Thus Money, on which Trade floats, like a Tide, by ebbing and flowing, will bring vast Business to our People, and furnish them with Employment and Happiness. But all this doth absolutely depend on cultivating such large Tracts of Land, as will make the Plenty great enough to reduce the Price of Labour, and all other Things in consequence thereof, so as to enable us to trade on Terms as reasonable as any other Nation; without which we must shut ourselves in a great Measure out of the foreign Trade of the World; as Merchants very well know, and every body will easily believe; since they that can work cheapest, must and will have the Trade.
But those who prohibit the Exportation of the rough Principles of their Manufactures, are willing to have them exported when wrought up, and fully manufactured. Now beside that they must expect Reprisals to be made by other Nations, who will shift as much as they can without such Goods, for the sake, as they all seem to imagine, of employing their own People, not considering how much such shrinking and contracting their Trade within themselves, cuts off the more valuable maritime Trade and Employment, which all should strive to promote and enlarge, not only for the Reason I gave before, but because such Nations will always be the richest and most powerful (in respect to the Bigness of their Territory) who have the most maritime Trade, whether the Quantity of Cash amongst the People be as great as any other Nation or not; beside all this, I say, it may not be amiss to consider, what a vast Value must be risqued at Sea, when things are fully manufactured, to what would be risqued in their rough Principles; and what a Tendency the vast Value of Goods, fully manufactured, hath to make the Balance of Trade fluctuate, so as to hazard very great Quantities of Gold and Silver, much oftener at Sea, to make the Balance, than there otherwise would be Occasion for: And after all, how difficult is it, sufficiently to prevent the Exportation or Importation of any thing, which those who want it will be at the Charge to get; and what a Damage do a great many honest People sustain, by the unavoidable Inconveniences attending Prohibitions and high Duties, besides the Iniquity they too often occasion! But let us a little consider, whether a free and unrestrained Trade hath any Inconveniencies, we ought to guard against.(10*) I will not contend for it, with respect to France, though I can't see it could do us any Harm, even in that Case, if we were prudent enough to prevent the Inconvenience, by imploying more Land as our Cash decreases, thereby to employ the People, and lower the Price of things still so much, that whatever Cash remains amongst us, it may however be so plentiful as to circulate Trade to the utmost, and so make the People in general happy, notwithstanding its Decrease. For I am sensible that as France can work vastly cheaper, because they can live for a great deal less than we can do, so they can make most of the Manufactures we make, as well as we can; and therefore if we were to open Trade with them, they would bring us all sorts of Goods so cheap, that our Manufactures would be at an End, till the Money they would by this Means get of us rais'd the Prices of their things so much, and our Want of Money should fall ours to such a Degree, that we could go on with our Manufactures as cheap as they; and when Trade would stand between that Nation and us, as it doth between us and other Nations who mutually take Goods of each other; and I think this would enlarge the maritime Trade of both Nations, together with all the Trades relating thereto (i.e. would furnish still further Means of employing abundance of People of both Nations this Way); and at last, this will terminate in the particular Advantages each Nation naturally hath in the Produce of their respective Countries: And if any Nation is blest in this respect more than another, the Difference this will make, will be only that of having more Money amongst them, than such other Nations have in proportion to the Number of their People, and the Prices of Things in each Nation will be dearer and cheaper respectively; yet if they should go to make any other Advantage of this, to restrain, and so increase the Money amongst them, this would soon prove to their Hurt, because as their Goods will certainly rise as their Cash increases, so this will make the Opportunity greater for other nations, who will from hence be able to outdo them in Cheapness, to drive them out of their Trade at other foreign Markets, and probably, notwithstanding all they can do to prevent it, such cheap Commodities will find the Way to them likewise.
But we must consider our Trade, with respect to all other Nations, as well as France. Suppose, therefore, that such an unrestrained Trade with France, or any other nation, should diminish our Cash so very considerably, that we could not give above half the Price for Things in general as we at present do: if we take care to keep our Trade alive, by employing the People in cultivating more Lands, that our Produce and Manufactures may be cheap enough to carry on Trade with such Nations, it must needs enlarge our Trade mightily with those nations, whose Cash keeps their Prices of things near to, or above the Rates ours are now at; insomuch that I think we must needs have the Balance on all such Nations, so much as to prevent any considerable Mischief arising to us, whilst our Trade is taking such a turn as an open Trade with those Nations, who can work so much cheaper, might occasion.
But lest any should think my laying such Stress on cultivating so much Land is any way extravagant, I would desire them to consider, that this also will find its natural bounds; for the cultivating Land will stop of itself, when the Plenty becomes too great to answer and turn to Account; which can only arise from too high Rents, or employing too many of the People this Way; of which last I apprehend there never can be any Danger, as I will shew hereafter. But if this could be, since the People make a Shift to live now, there is an evident Necessity to cultivate a great deal more Land to employ them, and thereby to make Money plentiful, and Trade to flourish. How profitable and advantageous would all other Trades, etc. become, by being thus in fewer Hands than they would require;(11*) to which the great Plenty and Cheapness of Necessaries, which is ultimately what all work for, would so mightily contribute, that the People would naturally fall into them, and so hold that Proportion in all Trades, Manufactures, and Professions, as well as Cultivation of Land, that the Nature of Things themselves would plainly and sufficiently point out! And the Rise of Rents of late Years, which like all other Things could only rise from the extraordinary Demand for Lands, is a Demonstration that all Things would certainly thus work of themselves, just as they should do, and as the Author of Nature designed, if the People could have had more Land, instead of raising the Rents, as they wanted it; for this is really that Course of Providence, which is established in the Nature of Things, for the Provision and Happiness of Mankind.
I shall now proceed to shew that the prohibiting the current Coin to be exported is certain Loss to the Nation. For we can have no Occasion to send Money, or Bullion, or foreign Coin to any Nation, unless we receive more Goods in value from them than they have from us; in which Case they must have our Money or Bullion, or foreign coin, sent them, or we must cease to trade with them, which I think is impossible. Now if I must buy Bullion or foreign coin, because the Exportation of our Coin is prohibited, it's certain that the Seller of Bullion or foreign Coin must and will have a Profit; that is, I must give more in Coin for less in Bullion or foreign Coin, which when my Correspondent receives, he will value it just as if it were our own Coin of like Weight and Fineness: Wherefore if the Demand continues here for Bullion or foreign Coin, to pay the Balance of Trade to any Nation, he will send it back to this Market, where it must and will in this Case fetch more, by all Charges of Freight, and Risque of the Sea, and Postage of Letters, and Commission, and some Profit to himself; unless our Coin be melted to save this Loss. Now suppose all this should make but 2 per cent it's evident that in 50 Returns of the Bullion of foreign Coin, we must have paid a whole Capital more than if we were admitted freely to send our own current Money, where the Balance of Trade requires it. And this must cause our current Money to be melted both at home and abr since it will thus be worth more the Ballance of Trade lies against us with any particular Nation, so much the quicker will these disadvantageous Returns be made, and our Specie undoubtedly be so much the faster melted. But if we let our current Coin come and go freely, Bullion or foreign Coin will not be worth so much as our Coin, because its Fineness and Value cannot be so easily and universally known; and therefore if the Balance of Trade be in our Favour, that is, brings us Gold and Silver, it must and will go to the Mint to be coined, to ascertain its Fineness and Value, provided the government not only coin it at their own Charge, but immediately deliver as many Ounces of Coin as they receive of foreign Gold and Silver; for it's no less absurd for the Government to fix the Price they will give for Gold and Silver brought to be coined, than it would be to make a Law to fix and ascertain the Prices of every other Commodity.
And it's further certain, that as the Balance of Trade is a fluctuating Thing, if our Money be suffered to go and come freely as the Balance of Trade may require, (and otherwise it neither can go nor come) as Bullion will then certainly be of somewhat less Value than Coin, the People in foreign Nations will buy up what Money of ours they can easily find, because it will hardly be of so much Value amongst them as their own, and they can pay more with it in the Nation it properly belongs to than with Bullion of their own coin; and this will certainly in a great Measure prevent the melting our Money at home, and in foreign Nations, and consequently will save the Trouble and Charge of coining a great deal of Money, and bring a great deal of our Money back from those Nations where the Balance of Trade had before carried it, provided our Trade stands on such a Foot with those Nations, that the Balance be in our Favour: And I have shewn how it may certainly be made so, viz. by making our Produce and manufactures so plentiful, and thereby (which is inseparable) so cheap and good, as to cause foreign Nations to take abundance more of them; which Plenty and Cheapness of our Produce and manufactures will prevent the Importation of abundance of foreign Commodities; and thus the Balance will be in our Favour, and that Balance must be paid us in Money: By this Means only it is we have any Gold and Silver, i.e. Money amongst us; nor is there any other in Nature, for any Nation that hath not Mines: Wherefore this deserves the utmost Regard of every Trading Nation, not only for the Sake of the Money they will thus get, but to make their Trade flourish, and their People happy, and their Government powerful; for without this, Trade must languish, the People become poor, which will make the Taxes an insupportable Burthen, and consequently make the Government weak.
I think this the more concerns us, because Foreigners are interested in our publick Securities and Funds for vast Sums; for, low as we think the Interest of Money to be now, we give better Interest than they can make at home; and our Parliamentary Securities having been always maintained inviolably, give every body the utmost Confidence in them. As therefore all Commodities (and Money is no other) ever did, and ever will find the highest market, so this is the Cause why Foreigners deposit their Money in our Funds; and as they thereby draw home the Interest, they contribute so much to the decreasing the Cash of the Nation.
Another thing, which still enforceth the Argument to permit our current Coin to go and come freely, as the Balance of Trade may require, is, that if we have the Balance of Trade in our Favour, on any Nation who hath the Balance in their Favour on another which hath the Ballance on us, such Nations will probably transmit our Money to the Nation that has the Balance on them; because if they send their own current Coin, it will be as much foreign Coin to the Nation it's sent to, as our Coin can be; and
therefore, as I said, if we have the Balance on any nation which receives our Money, it will come back again to us, because it will pay more and be readier, than if they sent us Bullion or heir own current Specie; and thus will it save our Money from being melted abras well as at home; which I think a strengthening Argument for permitting our Specie to go and come freely where the Balance of Trade shall carry it.
In the Beginning of this Essay, it was laid down as a Maxim, That Gold and Silver (i.e. Money) will be plentiest where the Mines are: Now since I am treating of prohibiting our current Coin to be exported, let it be supposed, that the People possess'd of the Mines could furnish themselves with the Necessaries and Pleasures of Life by the Produce of their own Country, and therefore should think fit to prohibit the Exportation of Gold and Silver, and should thereby be effectually able to prevent the Exportation thereof; which is undoubtedly impossible: I say, if we suppose such Nations to prohibit the Exportation of Gold and Silver, and at the same time continue to work those Mines, so that they are continually giving more and more Gold and Silver, how great must the Increase of those Commodities soon become! And since Gold and Silver are of little Use, besides procuring the Necessaries and Conveniencies of Life, which alone are real Riches, and for which Gold and Silver are now universally exchanged; would not the great Plenty of these Commodities, thus continually increasing, cause proportionably so much more Gold and Silver (with which they would at length be incumbered) to be given for the more necessary Produce and Fruits of the Earth? And would not this so depress the Value of Gold and Silver, by their Plenty amongst them, as to give amble Opportunity and Encouragement to all the World to go to this Market with their Produce and Manufactures, which they can and will sell for a vast deal less Gold and Silver, than what such Goods of their own raising would in this Case be sold for? Nay, they would find it a Convenience to be eased of the Burthen of Gold and Silver, which the Mines, if continually worked, would be giving, as certainly as it's a Relief to any Country to part with any Commodity they too much abound in: For if they do not cease to work the Mines, when they have raised Gold and Silver enough to be burthensome, they must and will certainly drop their Cultivation and Manufactures; since Men will not easily be induced to labour and toil, for what they can get with much less Trouble, by exchanging some of the Excess of their Gold and Silver for what they want. And if they should be supposed, as is natural enough in this case, to drop their Cultivation and Manufactures, which are much the slowest and most laborious Way of supplying themselves with what they could so easily and readily procure by exchanging Gold and Silver, which they too much abound in, they would certainly, in a great Measure, by so doing lose the Arts of Cultivation, and especially of Manufactures; as it's thought Spain hath done, merely by the Accession of the Wealth which the West Indies have produced them; whence they are become a poor Nation, and the Conduit-Pipes to disperse the Gold and Silver over the World, which other Nations, by making Goods cheaper than they can do, are fetching from them, to such a Degree, as that the Mines are scarcely sufficient to answer their Occasions; and though they are sensible of this, yet they find by Experience they can't prevent it.
The case is the very same, in some Degree, in every Nation, whose Quantity of real or artificial Cash is large enough to support the Prices of their goods, considerably above the Rates such Goods bear in other Nations around them. Whence it's obvious, all Prohibitions must in the Issue be injurious to Trade, because beside all other Mischiefs they occasion, they are always designed to restrain the Money from going out of the Nation.
Yet I must own, I am entirely for preventing the Importation of all foreign Commodities, as much as possible; but not by Acts of Parliament, which never can do any good to trade; but by raising such Goods ourselves, so cheap as to make it impossible for other Nations to find their Account in bringing them to us: And as this is the only natural and effectual Prohibition of such Things as we would not receive from abr so I wish every Nation in the World would do this as much as ever they can; for then the Plenty of every thing would be so great, that all Mankind would be happy, if this world is capable of making them so.
I shall now proceed to some Observations upon the whole.
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